More Polls: AZ Prez Race Tight!

We saw the Obama campaign’s “Rear View,” a negative ad targeting John McCain, on KVOA, Channel 4, this evening, so it appears Barack Obama is not just running the positive ad “Something” in Arizona.

Meanwhile, a Mason-Dixon poll released today shows Obama trailing McCain by just four points.

You have to consider the source, but Daily Kos commissioned a poll that shows Obama within one point of McCain and ahead among early voters. That sounds a little optimistic to us, but we still think the close race helps Democrats in down-ballot races.

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com calls Obama’s big ad buy “irrational exuberance”:

I have to say that I’m not a big fan of this from standpoint of marginal electoral strategy. A slew of recent polls in Arizona show the state close, by margins ranging from 1 to 8 points. However, this is the time of year when “close” means something very different from “functionally tied”. A 3-to-5 point lead in a state, which is where the Arizona polls average out, is fairly significant at this stage of the contest. That lead still belongs to John McCain.

And needless to say, it is hard to elucidate a scenario in which Arizona serves as some sort of tipping point state. Obama will not perform better in Arizona than in Continue reading

Cronkite-Eight Poll: Arizona Prez Race “A Toss-Up”

A fourth poll in Arizona shows a tight race between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama.

The Cronkite-Eight Poll shows that 46 percent of voters surveyed said they were supporting McCain, while 44 percent said they were backing Obama.

Three other recent polls have shown McCain losing support among Arizona voters.

Poll director Dr. Bruce Merrill:

“The race in Arizona is very close. Supporters of both candidates are highly committed to their candidates, with 94 percent of Obama’s supporters and 93 percent of McCain’s supporters indicating that they are firmly committed and won’t change their mind before Election Day. In addition, the undecided vote is very low, which means that there are few people remaining to be persuaded during the last week of the campaign. Obama has been closing the gap by attracting independents and women to his campaign. McCain does well among conservative Democrats and evangelicals. Still, a week is a long time in a political campaign and anything can happen. Who wins will be determined by which candidate gets their supporters out to the polls on Election Day.”

Merrill notes that 62 percent of Arizonans believe that Obama will win on Election Day, while just 20 percent believe McCain will make a comeback.

The poll also shows that 51 percent of the voters surveyed opposed Prop 105, aka Majority Rules, while just 27 percent support it. If passed by voters, the proposition would require that future initiatives that raise taxes would require a majority of all registered voters, not just the ones who bother to vote in the election.

Three Polls: Obama Closes Gap With McCain in AZ

Three polls in the last few days show that Democrat Barack Obama is closing in on Republican John McCain right here in Arizona.

A Rasmussen Reports survey released today shows a five-percentage-point gap between the candidates, with 51 percent of voters supporting McCain and 46 percent Obama.

That’s a staggering drop from a Rasmussen poll released late last month, which showed McCain with a 21-percentage-point lead. In that survey, 59 percent of voters were supporting McCain and just 38 percent were supporting Obama.

The Rasmussen survey comes after the release of a poll commissioned by Project New West, which shows that 48 percent of voters are supporting McCain and 44 percent are supporting Obama.

The survey of 600 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minor 4 percent.

Finally, local pollster Carol Zimmerman has released a poll that shows that 43.5 percent of voters back McCain, while 41.5 percent support Obama.

The Zimmerman poll showed that Obama clobbering McCain by roughly 19 points in Pima County, 53.5 percent to 34.9 percent.

Fluid Situation: The Race for the CAP Board

In the latest edition of the Tucson Weekly, Tim Vanderpool writes about the race for the four Pima County seats on the 15-member Central Arizona Project board.

Up at Lake Havasu, the Central Arizona Project taps into a once ferocious Colorado River. From there, the CAP canal quietly dissects one tough stretch of real estate after another, meandering southward through the Little Harquahala Basin, the Tonopah Desert and into Phoenix, before finishing its journey on the edges of Tucson.

Some 80 feet wide and 336 miles long, the concrete canal is a feat of monumental proportions. But depending upon your perspective, it may also be a monument to human folly, for within this system of aqueducts, reservoirs and pumping stations resides the illusion that our thirsty state can grow forever.

Future and folly were both on display when four candidates vying for the four Pima County seats on the 15-member Central Arizona Project board hashed over growth and water Continue reading

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